Analysis of the Current Status of Healthy Working Life Expectancy in Shandong Province

Abstract

This paper focuses on the "Healthy China" strategy and the background of the gradual retirement policy, and conducts research on the healthy working life expectancy in Shandong Province in response to the deepening of the aging population, the increase in residents' medical expenses, the younger onset of diseases, and the compression of working time due to the increase in average years of education. The aim is to explore the construction of a life-cycle solution for aging, verify the feasibility of delayed retirement, and provide policy recommendations. The research uses data from the 2018-2020 Shandong Province Health Big Data of Northern Health Medical Big Data Technology Co., Ltd, taking 606,163 employees of listed companies in Shandong Province as samples. A model including five states: healthy retirement, healthy work, unhealthy retirement, unhealthy work, and death is constructed based on the Markov process. The health status is determined by chronic disease expenses, hospitalization expenses, and major disease indicators, and the healthy working life expectancy is measured by combining transition probabilities and actuarial theory. The statistical results show that there are significant differences in the healthy working life expectancy among different groups: from the perspective of gender and age, the healthy working life expectancy of women under 25 is higher than that of men, but men surpass women after the age of 36. The sum of age and healthy working life expectancy of women aged 51-65 and men aged 56-65 exceeds the original legal retirement age, indicating the potential for delayed retirement. From the perspective of regions, employees in Heze City have the longest healthy working life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Shandong Province, while those in Linyi City have the shortest. From the perspective of enterprise characteristics, employees in state-owned enterprises, medium-capital-density enterprises, medium-sized enterprises, and non-heavy-polluting enterprises have better healthy working life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. From the perspective of employee income, the healthy working life expectancy decreases with the increase in income, and low-income employees have the best healthy working life expectancy. From the perspective of industries, the first and third industries are better than the second industry, with the real estate industry having the longest healthy working life expectancy and the construction and information internet industries having the shortest. The research conclusion points out that the delayed retirement policy is in line with the current situation of the labor force and elderly care, and although it may squeeze the employment opportunities of young people in the short term, it can stimulate economic growth and increase employment opportunities in the long term. It is suggested that when implementing the delayed retirement policy, the differences in healthy working life expectancy among different groups should be fully considered, and differentiated strategies should be formulated in combination with enterprise characteristics and individual employee characteristics to support the construction of "Healthy China" and "Digital China".